With less than five months until the Summer Olympics and Paralympics in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, over a million athletes, officials and fans are gearing up for competition. Meanwhile, Brazil is at the height of an epidemic of mosquito-borne Zika virus, with over 1.5 million reported cases in the last year. Zika is mild or asymptomatic for most infected people; however, it has been linked to severe birth defects, including microcephaly and Guillain-Barre, in infected pregnant women. Zika has already spread to 38 countries, mainly in the Americas, and experts worry that Olympic visitors could spread the virus further.
Rio wouldn’t be the first mass gathering to spread disease across the globe. The 2006 FIFA World Cup in Germany was linked to a norovirus outbreak, and a deadly meningitis outbreak in Europe in 2000 was traced back to pilgrims returning from the Hajj. In fact, the 2012 London Olympics was one of the few recent global events that has not been blamed for a disease outbreak, thanks to a comprehensive surveillance and triage system.
The World Health Organization maintains that Zika should not affect international travel to the Olympic Games, but many countries – including the United States – are warning pregnant or potentially-pregnant travelers to avoid Zika-infested areas. August and September are winter months in the southern hemisphere, when mosquitos are rare in Brazil. Still, Brazilian winters are mild, and the Aedes aegypti mosquito – responsible for transmitting Zika – has caused winter outbreaks, including a deadly outbreak of chikungunya in 2014. Many visitors from the Northern Hemisphere will return to summer in their home countries, where mosquitoes are common and Zika could spread easily.
Some prominent athletes, including US soccer star Hope Solo, have already announced that they may skip the games if the outbreak worsens. Others plan to use insect repellant, long sleeves, bed nets or mosquito screens to protect themselves. In the end, though, attending the Olympics is a rare opportunity, and the risk of negative effects for a non-pregnant athlete or fan are low. Any serious consequences may not occur until months or years after the Games, if the virus is brought back to home countries. For now, we’ll just have to wait and see.
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Elena Martinez is a Research Analyst at CDDEP.