OHT researchers developed a model to evaluate how people’s behavior changed when they heard about more COVID-19 hospital cases in the news. The model assumed that when people hear about more cases, they become more careful, which slows down the spread of the disease. The model also included people’s movements (using Google mobility trends) and seasonal variation in humidity and the number of cases in Maryland, US during the first 450 days of the pandemic.
The model showed that including how people’s behavior changed in response to news about COVID-19 spread, was better at predicting new cases in Maryland during the first 450 days of the pandemic than the model including just movement and weather fluctuations alone.
MInD (Centers for Disease Control and Prevention)
Predictive Intelligence for Pandemic Prevention (National Science Foundation).