May 10, 2026
Overview:
Antimicrobial resistance (AMR) is a growing threat to both human and animal health worldwide. In livestock production, antibiotics are often used not only to treat infections, but also to promote animal growth and prevent disease. However, the continued overuse of antibiotics in animals is linked to the rise of drug-resistant infections.
At the same time, policymakers and farmers are concerned that reducing antibiotic use in livestock could harm production and increase economic losses. This One Health Trust collaborative article explores the economic trade-offs between reducing antibiotic use in livestock and the long-term consequences of rising AMR.
The Question:
Are the short-term economic costs of phasing out antibiotic growth promoters (AGPs) in livestock smaller or larger than the long-term economic costs caused by increasing AMR?
The Findings:
The researchers built a two-step global economic framework to test how different antimicrobial-related shocks could affect livestock production and the wider economy over time.
They used a global agricultural market model to simulate how livestock production, prices, trade, and demand would change under different scenarios, such as:
- a gradual phase-out of antibiotics used for growth promotion in livestock
- and a continued rise in AMR over time and its impact on livestock production and the wider economy.
They examined how these changes could affect livestock production, trade, prices, economic growth, and global welfare through 2040.
They found that phasing out AGPs may lead to temporary declines in livestock production, particularly in poultry and pork systems that rely more heavily on antibiotics. However, these losses were relatively short-term, and production gradually recovered over time.
In contrast, the impacts of AMR were far more severe and long-lasting. The researchers found that rising AMR could steadily reduce livestock production over time, with losses continuing to grow through 2040.
Under the study’s highest-impact scenario, AMR resulted in:
- around US$318 billion in cumulative livestock production losses by 2040
- and approximately US$1.25 trillion in global economic welfare losses between 2025 and 2040
The findings suggest that while reducing antibiotic use in livestock may create short-term adjustment costs, the long-term economic consequences of failing to address AMR are far greater. The study highlights the importance of improving antibiotic stewardship, strengthening biosecurity, and investing in alternatives such as vaccination and better livestock management practices.
Read it in the Journal of Agricultural Economics here.
