The Question

What is the role of epidemiological theory and mathematical modeling in defining and updating the elimination agenda?

What we found

A good elimination program needs targets with clear criteria for success or failure over a given time frame. Different models are useful for different situations. Data and mathematical models provide essential quantitative measures that allow the differentiation of settings and hence tailored plans and goals. At the same time, they provide the tools to determine realistic timelines. Moreover, the models can help with evaluation, and where necessary adapt and make course corrections.

Why it matters

The most basic questions arising in planning and monitoring are of a quantitative nature. Mathematical modeling is one of several tools that can aid define and evaluate malaria elimination plans.